GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: #15 PURDUE vs. WISCONSIN
Sunday, March 6, 2016 • 7:30 p.m. ET | Mackey Arena (West Lafayette) | TV: BTN | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
In-game updates: Twitter.com/@GoldandBlackcom
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About this game: Senior night in Mackey Arena marks the rematch between these two teams, who opened the Big Ten season against one another in Madison and now finish it in West Lafayette. Purdue won the meeting at Wisconsin, 61-55, on Dec. 29 of 2015, but this is a very different Badger team. Now fully acclimated to playing for interim coach Greg Gard and the changes he implemented, the Badgers are 11-5 in the Big Ten after a poor (by their standards) start to the season. "They look more like a Wisconsin team," Purdue coach Matt Painter said. Gard took over for Bo Ryan just two games prior to that first meeting with Purdue. Both teams are playing for Big Ten Tournament seeding, with Purdue needing a win for a chance at the coveted double-bye. Despite its strong conference season, Wisconsin is still playing for a place in the NCAA Tournament.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (23-7, 11-6 B1G)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
C - A.J. Hammons (7-0, 250, Sr.)
In his final game in Mackey Arena, the Boilermaker star will look to go out with another big game. He has been a dominant player for Purdue as a senior, at both ends of the floor, but the Boilermakers need his best from here on out, too. In the first meeting with Wisconsin, he and Isaac Haas dominated the interior, but Badger big man Ethan Happ has come a long way since then - his effort will be a handful for Purdue's centers - and Wisconsin in general is a better team.
F - Caleb Swanigan (6-9, 250, Fr.)
Swanigan's scored in double-figures in four of the last five games for Purdue and been pretty efficient, aside from a 2-of-9 game against Northwestern, doing it. Purdue has been getting him more high-percentage looks around the basket. He'll match up with Vitto Brown, the Badger 4 who's been shooting the ball pretty well from the perimeter lately, so that's something to watch.
F - Vince Edwards (6-8, 225, So.)
Edwards has been pretty aggressive off the dribble lately and pretty decisive and assertive as an offensive player. When he is those things, Purdue is better because of it. There may not be a player on the roster who affects Purdue positively more when he's clicking.
G- Rapheal Davis (6-6, 217, Sr.)
No Boilermaker on this roster has relished playing in Mackey Arena and played off the fans' energy more than Davis, and that will be an interesting dynamic for him on what will surely be an emotional senior night for him. Assuming he again guards Badger star Nigel Hayes, as he did in the first meeting, that's his significance in this game more than anything. Making a couple shots wouldn't hurt either. Dakota Mathias has been really good and really aggressive the last couple games as well.
G- P.J. Thompson (5-10, 188, So.)
Thompson has been Purdue's starter most of the season, but Johnny Hill has done some really good things lately, so we'll see how things go against the Badgers. But whoever lines up at point guard has Bronson Koenig to worry about. They stifled him in Madison, but he's not an easy cover.
WISCONSIN BADGERS (20-10, 12-5 B1G)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
Center - Ethan Happ (6-9, 235, R-Fr.)
The redshirt freshman big man may be the frontrunner for Freshman-of-the-Year in the conference. He's a tenacious rebounder who actually leads the league in steals per game also, a combination you don't often see. Defending him requires patience, because he has excellent footwork and patience and when he seems to be trapped under the basket with nowhere to go, he has you right where he wants you. Purdue overwhelmed him with its size the first time around, but he's better and more experienced now. But he's the sort of player who can get Purdue in foul trouble if it's not careful.
Forward - Vitto Brown (6-8, 230, Jr.)
Brown is a big, traditional power forward body type who on paper would seem like a favorable matchup for Purdue, but he's making jump shots at a pretty high rate right now, and you've seen what big men who can shoot have done to Purdue at times this season. He's a 35-percent three-point shooter, but Purdue has been torched by worse at times this season. It will have to respect him.
Forward - Nigel Hayes (6-8, 240, Jr.)
Hayes is one of the best players in the Big Ten and Wisconsin will go to him early and often, often in isolation. He can shoot turnarounds and threes or post up around the basket and does things that make him a pretty difficult matchup for Davis if that's the matchup Purdue goes with again. He made some really tough, indefensible shots in Madison. But for the season, he is only a 39-percent shooter. Purdue will look to make him as inefficient as possible.
Guard - Bronson Koenig (6-4, 193, Jr.)
A 41-percent three-point shooter who's one of the better scoring guards in the Big Ten, Koenig was quieted by Purdue in Madison, but that'll be easier said than done the second time around. He's on a run of nine straight double-figure scoring games on relatively low-volume shooting and earlier in the season scored 27 to beat Michigan State in the Kohl Center. He's on a tear from three-point range, shooting better than 44 percent in Big Ten play and he's 9-of-15 in the past three games.
Guard - Zak Showalter (6-2, 184, Sr.)
Showalter is a role player type who can make shots. Those are the types of guys you worry about when focusing on other guys, as Purdue will be with Hayes and Koenig.
| Aggressiveness | Turnovers | Rebound |
|---|---|---|
|
Wisconsin has been an excellent defensive team during the Big Ten season. Purdue can't pass up on opportunities to score in the name of due diligence. Additionally, on the interior, Happ is a hard-charger. Purdue's size trumps his by a long shot, but it may not matter as much if the Boilermaker bigs don't match his effort. |
See Games 1 through 29 for more on this category. Purdue did a nice job against Nebraska not turning the ball over, but this will remain the Boilermakers' most acute concern in every game they play from here on out. It is their fastest, most effective, most time-tested path to losses. |
Again, Purdue's strengths have to be its strengths and rebounding is Purdue's strength. It will need to keep Happ, Brown, etc., off the offensive glass and get rich itself on second chances against a defense that makes those first chances difficult. It doesn't matter who gets the rebound, as long as someone for Purdue does. |
PREDICTION: PURDUE 70, WISCONSIN 64
It's not who you play but when you play 'em, and the first time around, Purdue got Wisconsin at the right time. Now, not so much. The Badgers are better than they were at the end of 2015, but so are the Boilermakers. And homecourt matters. Wisconsin's showing last time out against a skeleton crew of a Minnesota team was underwhelming, while Purdue looked good in winning big at Nebraska. Senior night will matter, too, for Purdue. That can go both ways, but Purdue has a track record this season of starting strong in environments like the one it'll operate in Sunday night.
Senior Retrospectives ($): Rapheal Davis | Johnny Hill
(A.J. Hammons coming Monday)
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